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February: Peak Internet, Earnings and Russia.
This month features analysis on a shift in market attitudes to online companies and how conflict in a key region for global commodities might play out.
Its been a short and impactful month with lots to talk about. At the surface, earnings season looks normal with the number of companies beating and missing expectations at trend. Bubbling up, there’s concerns around the viability of e-commerce models and how the ‘COVID sauce’, as Felix Oberholzer-Gee puts it, has been used up. The results of companies like Netflix, Disney, Amazon, Meta, UPS, Mastercard and Paypal have been fascinating to review and compare. February didn’t just stop at a ‘peak internet’ earnings season, it went on to provide a gut punch to the recovering global economy in the form of Russia invading Ukraine.
The conflict comes amongst existing inflationary pressures and supply chain constraints. While it may motivate some countries to engage in further fiscal stimulus through arms spending, its more likely to push up the prices of wheat, oil and gas. Throw all these elements in together and the world is in a precarious state of transition.
